|
This year's Oscar race, an American Beauty by Jon Chattman 03-23-00 Predicting this year's Oscars accurately is like predicting the ending of "The Sixth Sense"-either it's going to be what you expected it to be or it will shock the hell out of you.Here are my personal favorites who could and should win the bald gold guy-and no, I don't mean Homer Simpson. BEST PICTURE: Deserves it and will earn it: AMERICAN BEAUTY The Sam Mendes directed film features some of the best performances of the year, notably Kevin Spacey, who can draw an audience in by a mere expression, Annette Bening, who is at a career best, and Chris Cooper, who was snubbed by the Academy. THE CIDER HOUSE RULES has a chance to upset, but it is not likely because that film was lucky...um, sorry...honored to get nominated at all. THE GREEN MILE is too long for Oscar voters, and with the majority of voters seeing films on tape-a movie over three hours will not play well.THE INSIDER would have been a tailor-made Oscar winner in yesteryear, but with its un-newsworthy take in the box office, I wouldn't write this film into Oscar history just yet. THE SIXTH SENSE is the best scary movie ever made, but how many Oscars can you name that were awarded for a horror film? Exactly. BEST ACTOR: Deserves it and will earn it: KEVIN SPACEY The backlash of "The Hurricane" has caused the once-sure bet winner, preview Oscar winner Denzel Washington, out of competition. Another Oscar winner Kevin Spacey will likely duke it out with Washington, but look for Spacey to win the award. His performance is flawless. Spacey's win is not locked up, however, Russell Crowe and Richard Farnsworth may sneak by if Oscar is ready to honor an Oscar virgin. Crowe's transformation of a whistle-blower could garner attention, and Farnsworth could get the "old fart" sympathetic vote for his subtle turn in "The Straight Story." Having no shot at the award is Sean Penn in Woody Allen's "Sweet and Lowdown" -by far one of the actors' and directors' worst films. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Deserves it and will earn it: TOM CRUISE Cruise won a Golden Globe for his performance as Frank Mackey, the sleazy televangelist from "Magnolia," and will likely win here as a reward for being wrongfully passed over by the Academy for his star turns in "Born on the Fourth of July" and "Jerry Maguire."Giving Cruise stiff competition is recent Screen Actor's Guild Award winner Michael Caine of "The Cider House Rules." Caine could sneak by Cruise, but it is unlikely, because the actor has already won an Oscar in this category for the Woody Allen film, "Hannah and Her Sisters." He also will not win because he does not have enough screen time, and struggles with a New England accent. Another surprise win could be Haley Joel Osment, but don't count on him seeing "gold" people for his riveting performance in "The Sixth Sense." Despite his haunting performance, Osment will likely go home empty with the sentiment that a nomination alone will likely catipult him to stardom.The two remaining supporting actors have slim to no chance of winning. Michael Clarke Duncan's superb and heartbreaking performance in "The Green Mile" and Jude Law's good but lackluster performance in "The Talented Mr. Ripley" will likely follow Osment lead by being honored in Hollywood for their nomination alone. ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Deserves it: HILARY SWANK. Will earn it: ANNETTE BENING In a perfect world, the Academy would acknowledge Swank for her courageous performance as the cross-gender Brandon Teena in "Boy's Don't Cry." Her performance, which has garnered numerous pre-Oscar awards, is a cry from the soul, but Oscar votes could be turned off by the subject matter. Despite the strong possibility of a win, Annette Bening will likely defeat Swank for her portrayal as a stereotypical uptight suburban wife and mother, who has had it with her loser husband and her everyday life. Rounding out the rest of the nominees are three actresses who have as much of a shot at Best Actress as this reporter does. Janet McTeer ("Tumbleweeds"), Julianne Moore ("The End of the Affair"), and Oscar darling Meryl Streep ("Music of the Heart") will go home Oscarless. ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Deserves it: TONI COLLETTE. Will earn it: CHLOË SEVIGNY In a surprising move, Angelina Jolie's career climb will be "interrupted" by not having her name announced on Oscar night. Her Golden Globe award winning turn in "Girl, Interrupted" will miss out to Sevigny, who gave a subtly moving performance in "Boys Don't Cry." A Sevigny win could mean a matching award for Swank as well. In a category with few great performances, Collette deserves the award for her heartbreaking portrayal of the mother of the ghost-seeing boy in "The Sixth Sense." A possible upset could be Catherine Keener for her bitchy performance in "Being John Malkovich" as a woman who sells people the ride of their lives-inside of John Malkovich's head, could be that film's sole win.Lagging behind in the race like a shot horse is Samantha Morton for her role as a mute in "Sweet and Lowdown." Despite Woody Allen's previous success of garnering his supporting players an Oscar, Morton will keep her mouth shut on Oscar time. DIRECTING: Deserves it: MICHAEL MANN, THE INSIDER. Will Earn it: SAM MENDES, AMERICAN BEAUTYFour out of five of the nominees stand a chance, but Mendes won the Director's Guild of America award ensuring him to an easy victory. His direction is a stand out-everyone can remember that plastic bag-but a nice surprise would be an award given to Mann for one of the year's most underrated films. He directed each scene of "The Insider" as if the audience were being dragged into tobacco industry whistle-blower Jeffrey Wigand's life. The remaining directors have no chance to win. The star of "The Cider House Rules" was the story, not Lasse Hallström's direction-the same can be said as well for M. Night Shyamalan's "The Sixth Sense," and Spike Jonze's "Being John Malkovich." The latter two directors will likely be viewed by Oscar voters as up-and-coming directors who will use their film's success as a stepping stone for even greater works. SCREENPLAY - ADAPTATION: Deserves it: THE INSIDER. Will earn it: THE CIDER HOUSE RULES Keeping with the recent trend that a screenplay award is sometimes a consilation prize for a great film (ie. Curtis Hanson for "L.A. Confidential" and Quentin Tarantino for "Pulp Fiction), John Irving's script of his novel, "The Cider House Rules," will earn the award-despite not being a great film. "The Insider,"scripted by Mann and "Gump" adapter Eric Roth, suffers the same illness Frank Darabont's "The Green Mile" does, which is a film of great length. Voters could be turned off thinking that the adaptation by the writers repeated the books verbatim-leaving slim to none on the cutting room floor. Rounding out the category are two films-one really good, and one really bad. Despite "Election" writers Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor winning the Writer's Guild of America Award, Oscars voters aren't hip enough to pick this teenage romp. They failed to even nominate Reese Witherspoon, who gave one of the best performances of last year. As for the final nominee, "The Talented Mr. Ripley," Anthony Minghella's script is a reflected of why a talented cast made dreadful film. SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL: Deserves it: MAGNOLIA. Will earn it: AMERICAN BEAUTY 1999 will go down as one of the best years of original screenwriting in American cinema. With many choices to choose from, the Academy will select "Beauty" for a script that features the wittiest dialogue and most functional dysfunctional people. A personal choice goes to P.T. Anderson's interweaving storyof many California dreamers who are floating through life seeking a purpose. The film's words match the best ensemble cast of the year.The next three choices are dark horses. Charlie Kaufman's "Being John Malkovich" is a brilliant modern fairy tale, Night's "The Sixth Sense" featured the best ending of a film since "The Usual Suspects," and Mike Leigh's "Topsy-Turvey," which follow the adventures of Gilbert and Sullivan, all have a chance-but count on the "American Beauty" train to keep running. ...and in other categories ART DIRECTION: Deserves it and will earn it: SLEEPY HOLLOW CINEMATOGRAPHY: Deserves it: THE INSIDER Will Earn it: AMERICAN BEAUTY COSTUME DESIGN: Deserves it: THE TALENTED MR. RIPLEY Will Earn it: TOPSY-TURVY FILM EDITING: Deserves it: THE INSIDER Will earn it: THE MATRIX MAKEUP: Deserves it: AUSTIN POWERS: THE SPY WHO SHAGGED ME Will Earn it: TOPSY-TURVY ORIGINAL SCORE: Deserves it and will earn it: AMERICAN BEAUTY ORIGINAL SONG: Deserves it: "Save Me" by Aimee Mann for MAGNOLIA Will Earn it: "You'll be in my Heart" by Phil Collins for TARZAN SOUND: Deserves it and will earn it: THE MATRIX SOUND EFFECTS EDITING: Deserves it and earns it: THE MATRIX VISUAL EFFECTS: Deserves it and earns it: THE MATRIX ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Haven't seen all of them, but taking a shot anyway: SHORT FILM - ANIMATED: Will earn it: ALL ABOUT MY MOTHER SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION: Will earn it: WHEN THE DAY BREAKS DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Will earn it: KLEINGELD DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Will earn it: BUENA VISTA SOCIAL CLUB FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM : Will earn it: EYEWITNESS
|